* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 83 90 97 100 99 89 77 61 41 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 83 90 97 100 99 89 77 61 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 85 92 97 99 95 81 63 45 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 5 9 12 25 34 45 56 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 1 10 27 16 9 -2 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 185 176 225 239 266 252 257 243 239 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.6 28.4 27.5 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 157 155 157 158 151 149 140 126 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 75 71 65 64 62 59 50 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 25 26 25 23 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 36 34 28 19 14 8 19 36 39 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 126 134 158 171 153 94 84 84 62 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 6 10 18 27 32 28 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 864 851 845 807 780 688 449 215 104 -104 -352 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.2 15.0 16.8 18.9 21.0 23.1 25.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.2 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.1 110.6 109.6 108.4 106.9 105.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 42 30 24 27 27 18 15 10 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -27. -29. -31. -34. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -7. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 22. 25. 24. 14. 2. -14. -34. -50. -56. -60. -65. -68. -72. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 12.3 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 11.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 17.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 12.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.91 16.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 12.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 8.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -11.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 69% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 6.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 69.1% 77.9% 75.1% 72.9% 56.0% 61.1% 24.5% 0.0% Logistic: 39.3% 67.8% 58.9% 47.5% 23.7% 44.1% 5.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 66.0% 67.4% 84.6% 69.5% 20.1% 42.7% 3.5% 0.0% Consensus: 58.2% 71.1% 72.9% 63.3% 33.2% 49.3% 11.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##