* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 63 70 78 89 91 83 72 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 56 63 70 78 89 91 83 72 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 70 79 82 74 57 38 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 6 5 9 22 33 41 60 87 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -4 -1 11 24 21 9 14 0 -20 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 219 216 202 198 223 262 244 248 236 238 242 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.8 28.2 27.7 26.5 25.9 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 158 157 157 158 153 147 142 130 124 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 4 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 79 76 71 63 60 54 50 37 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 23 25 27 24 22 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 39 36 37 21 16 17 36 32 22 18 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 104 121 132 163 201 188 98 76 68 28 17 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 3 9 18 27 11 2 10 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 816 827 847 845 852 817 721 509 280 102 8 -277 -557 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.7 16.4 18.4 20.4 22.3 24.4 26.7 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.9 111.1 110.9 110.3 109.2 107.7 106.0 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 37 38 40 29 28 30 21 14 13 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. -0. -5. -14. -27. -40. -42. -45. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 5. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 39. 41. 33. 22. -8. -21. -37. -53. -57. -62. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.7 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/24/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 10.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 12.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 10.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -10.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 83% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 81% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.1% 70.8% 60.5% 52.1% 35.0% 83.0% 81.2% 43.3% Logistic: 14.9% 60.8% 40.9% 26.6% 25.3% 48.7% 41.6% 3.0% Bayesian: 9.7% 74.3% 80.6% 55.3% 17.3% 75.6% 49.1% 0.9% Consensus: 15.9% 68.6% 60.7% 44.7% 25.9% 69.1% 57.3% 15.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##