* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 50 52 53 55 57 58 58 57 57 58 59 61 61 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 50 52 53 55 57 58 58 57 57 58 59 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 49 51 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 10 15 24 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -2 -3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 251 235 235 224 236 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 25.5 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 133 130 131 113 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 120 117 119 103 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 6 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 68 66 62 50 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -70 -44 -13 20 52 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 37 49 65 62 66 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 7 3 7 11 13 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 354 417 381 390 446 456 498 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.1 26.0 27.4 28.7 31.8 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.8 75.5 76.3 76.1 76.0 73.1 70.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 14 16 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 42 47 36 28 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. 18. 19. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.1 74.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/09/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.77 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.48 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.1% 11.9% 8.3% 7.3% 9.4% 10.0% 10.3% Logistic: 3.5% 20.5% 11.3% 5.4% 1.7% 7.6% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 13.4% 7.8% 4.6% 3.0% 5.7% 3.6% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/09/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 48 50 52 53 55 57 58 58 57 57 58 59 61 61 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 46 48 49 51 53 54 54 53 53 54 55 57 57 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 42 43 45 47 48 48 47 47 48 49 51 51 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 34 35 37 39 40 40 39 39 40 41 43 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT