* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 60 58 53 42 34 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 60 58 53 42 34 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 56 51 40 31 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 30 26 22 24 18 14 16 15 18 16 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 8 6 4 26 5 0 -2 -4 -2 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 240 244 231 246 295 335 273 282 277 265 249 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.7 23.9 23.6 23.3 23.5 24.1 24.6 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 120 116 111 102 96 92 95 102 108 110 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.0 -49.8 -50.2 -51.0 -51.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 -0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 49 45 42 38 26 17 15 10 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 27 28 25 22 20 17 14 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 18 37 24 20 -14 -41 -89 -87 -76 -60 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 84 56 34 -3 -15 -25 -25 -24 -25 -22 -18 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 21 8 0 -2 -5 -13 -11 14 3 15 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1280 1400 1522 1663 1805 1649 1477 1453 1458 1563 1704 1864 1824 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.9 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.8 28.4 28.4 27.9 26.9 26.0 25.4 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.0 142.0 141.1 140.0 138.8 136.4 134.7 133.8 133.5 134.0 135.0 136.5 138.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 13 11 5 3 4 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -24. -29. -31. -29. -26. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -17. -28. -36. -41. -47. -57. -64. -69. -72. -77. -83. -89. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.0 143.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##