* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 97 87 77 69 55 45 36 31 25 23 20 19 17 16 16 15 V (KT) LAND 105 97 87 77 69 55 45 36 31 25 23 20 19 17 16 16 15 V (KT) LGEM 105 98 89 80 71 57 46 37 31 25 21 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 30 29 25 22 17 22 17 14 6 11 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 5 5 9 6 18 9 16 5 0 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 259 272 274 272 266 239 280 301 310 270 291 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 130 128 124 120 120 120 116 114 114 112 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 42 41 45 49 49 48 44 35 33 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 29 28 28 24 24 21 19 16 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 70 51 54 46 8 2 -5 9 -11 -30 -32 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -26 -43 -41 -40 51 36 -33 -17 -10 -11 -7 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 18 21 17 17 15 10 9 1 1 4 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 976 1009 1046 1086 1130 1231 1371 1517 1624 1668 1660 1608 1553 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.3 22.3 23.4 24.3 24.9 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.5 145.2 144.8 144.5 144.1 143.3 142.2 141.0 140.1 139.8 140.0 140.7 141.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -30. -37. -43. -48. -52. -54. -56. -58. -61. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -15. -18. -19. -17. -14. -12. -9. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -8. -14. -18. -23. -25. -26. -25. -22. -20. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -28. -36. -50. -60. -69. -74. -80. -82. -85. -86. -88. -89. -89. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 19.0 145.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 787.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##