* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 99 91 80 72 59 49 44 39 35 30 26 24 23 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 105 99 91 80 72 59 49 44 39 35 30 26 24 23 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 105 99 91 82 74 60 49 42 37 31 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 25 30 27 23 19 15 25 20 14 8 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 5 7 10 2 2 3 11 3 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 234 242 257 265 272 254 258 257 293 287 272 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 132 133 127 124 122 121 116 112 110 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.7 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.8 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 49 47 45 47 49 47 49 47 38 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 28 26 26 25 22 22 20 19 17 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 86 77 57 41 31 0 -31 -35 -12 -38 -60 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 37 0 -56 -71 -46 30 24 0 -16 -20 -10 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 11 12 16 16 13 10 6 5 -3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 971 987 1009 1035 1118 1211 1328 1459 1611 1714 1781 1858 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.2 22.3 23.3 24.3 25.3 26.0 26.5 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.9 145.7 145.4 145.2 144.9 144.2 143.5 142.6 141.6 140.4 139.6 139.1 138.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 9 8 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -46. -50. -52. -54. -56. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -15. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -14. -15. -18. -20. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -25. -33. -46. -56. -61. -66. -70. -75. -79. -81. -82. -82. -82. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.6 145.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 705.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##