* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 112 111 111 108 103 102 95 89 83 79 75 72 69 68 64 V (KT) LAND 115 111 112 111 111 108 103 102 95 89 83 79 75 72 69 68 64 V (KT) LGEM 115 109 105 104 102 99 96 89 79 70 63 57 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 4 7 5 7 12 20 22 24 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -3 0 2 7 5 6 1 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 30 63 154 176 199 188 218 228 250 256 260 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.6 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 150 148 146 144 138 137 131 129 129 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 74 73 73 68 57 51 50 42 42 43 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 33 32 34 36 35 36 35 34 34 33 31 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 70 82 86 104 113 113 103 95 87 76 48 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 100 106 114 95 98 88 84 75 31 8 24 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 3 4 4 6 10 14 15 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1523 1428 1334 1250 1167 1024 912 848 819 849 922 1032 1153 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.8 16.2 17.6 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.4 144.1 144.8 145.3 145.8 146.5 146.9 147.0 147.0 146.7 146.2 145.5 144.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 22 25 24 23 26 27 25 21 8 5 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -18. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -50. -51. -52. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -3. -4. -4. -7. -12. -13. -20. -26. -32. -36. -40. -43. -46. -47. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 11.3 143.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.89 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 18.0% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.6% 6.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##