* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 135 134 132 128 123 116 113 103 96 84 78 75 72 71 69 V (KT) LAND 130 133 135 134 132 128 123 116 113 103 96 84 78 75 72 71 69 V (KT) LGEM 130 131 128 126 124 118 115 112 106 93 79 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 1 3 4 6 3 5 14 16 28 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 -4 -3 -5 -1 -2 0 2 10 4 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 340 45 113 111 99 104 157 202 230 249 263 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 150 146 146 146 141 139 135 129 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 73 74 71 62 56 58 56 54 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 32 33 33 36 38 36 40 37 37 34 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 59 69 71 81 108 107 99 89 85 75 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 131 102 73 74 108 95 106 113 135 63 37 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 2 3 4 7 10 17 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1795 1703 1610 1518 1425 1254 1108 976 872 822 837 886 963 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.3 15.5 16.9 18.2 19.5 20.8 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.9 141.7 142.4 143.2 143.9 145.1 145.9 146.6 147.0 147.1 146.8 146.4 145.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 24 21 20 23 26 27 32 28 31 14 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -15. -25. -36. -44. -52. -58. -62. -63. -64. -65. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 12. 8. 8. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 2. -2. -7. -14. -17. -27. -34. -46. -52. -55. -58. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 10.5 140.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.95 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 12.3% 4.7% 2.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 19.7% 7.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 14.6% 6.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##