* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 131 134 136 135 131 126 122 117 111 100 93 86 79 73 65 V (KT) LAND 115 124 131 134 136 135 131 126 122 117 111 100 93 86 79 73 65 V (KT) LGEM 115 123 128 128 128 128 127 123 117 112 101 90 82 74 69 64 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 0 3 1 6 5 6 4 6 10 15 19 25 28 27 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 3 8 8 3 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 317 343 157 40 30 120 125 123 173 193 219 246 269 268 268 262 319 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 160 159 159 157 151 147 148 146 141 138 133 131 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 76 74 75 70 61 56 55 54 53 49 47 43 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 31 32 35 36 37 38 38 38 35 35 35 36 35 32 850 MB ENV VOR 60 62 64 66 71 99 109 117 124 120 115 104 98 104 104 116 87 200 MB DIV 117 129 108 108 92 100 99 90 103 106 80 56 22 24 28 9 -24 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -2 0 1 3 3 4 5 7 11 14 8 6 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2072 1977 1883 1787 1692 1513 1346 1193 1054 946 848 783 753 734 730 731 733 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.5 14.6 15.9 17.3 18.6 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.2 139.1 140.0 140.9 141.7 143.2 144.5 145.5 146.3 146.7 147.1 147.4 147.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 33 32 29 24 28 26 32 31 25 31 14 9 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -14. -22. -29. -35. -39. -42. -42. -44. -46. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 17. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 19. 21. 20. 16. 11. 7. 2. -4. -15. -22. -29. -36. -42. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 10.0 138.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 9.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 8.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.3% 44.4% 31.6% 27.5% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 59.3% 65.9% 50.5% 42.3% 26.8% 7.8% 2.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 50.8% 21.8% 19.3% 17.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 53.4% 44.0% 33.8% 29.0% 15.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##