* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 68 77 86 93 101 102 104 102 99 95 90 85 77 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 68 77 86 93 101 102 104 102 99 95 90 85 77 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 62 66 75 86 97 107 113 113 108 101 95 89 80 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 12 5 3 1 6 9 6 12 15 19 28 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -5 -1 -2 -1 2 9 7 6 SHEAR DIR 5 344 312 325 338 352 346 345 173 169 193 192 177 214 219 229 245 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 157 155 154 158 156 160 157 157 155 151 149 145 140 136 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 67 69 70 71 71 70 63 59 58 57 56 54 50 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 18 22 25 30 31 34 35 35 35 35 36 35 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 17 19 23 24 30 44 51 60 76 94 104 110 123 128 130 200 MB DIV 57 46 52 72 70 91 122 131 111 107 82 82 91 67 62 33 20 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -5 -6 -7 -1 5 7 7 5 9 9 12 14 LAND (KM) 2381 2453 2526 2586 2648 2555 2378 2186 1995 1800 1642 1514 1451 1428 1432 1475 1529 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.3 13.3 14.4 15.6 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.0 129.0 129.9 130.8 131.6 133.1 134.6 136.2 137.7 139.2 140.3 141.1 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 24 24 23 20 26 19 19 21 28 27 27 31 32 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 22. 24. 28. 27. 25. 23. 20. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 32. 41. 48. 56. 57. 59. 57. 54. 50. 45. 40. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 9.5 128.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.0% 56.5% 45.2% 33.8% 20.5% 46.3% 55.4% 55.0% Logistic: 46.8% 81.2% 68.0% 59.0% 36.2% 64.8% 73.0% 72.3% Bayesian: 13.4% 76.0% 59.9% 27.7% 8.0% 59.3% 63.8% 19.5% Consensus: 28.1% 71.2% 57.7% 40.2% 21.5% 56.8% 64.1% 48.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##