* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 32 28 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 32 28 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 33 28 24 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 27 28 30 32 33 29 25 23 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 9 8 2 2 3 3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 242 235 244 247 250 253 241 234 222 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 146 147 146 145 143 140 140 141 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 44 43 42 45 48 49 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 42 41 32 19 9 -7 0 -5 -15 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 37 25 29 8 2 9 -8 -6 -22 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 5 4 1 0 0 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 828 770 712 662 612 550 496 445 395 337 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.2 149.5 149.9 150.2 150.5 150.9 151.4 152.1 152.9 153.9 154.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 21 22 25 25 23 29 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -29. -28. -28. -26. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.3 149.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##