* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 52 56 57 57 52 46 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 52 56 57 57 52 46 39 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 51 52 51 46 40 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 13 8 7 15 20 27 16 20 22 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 1 4 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 87 87 88 98 130 193 214 254 267 256 244 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.7 26.6 25.9 25.0 23.6 21.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 143 141 137 142 132 125 116 102 78 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 71 70 64 55 44 42 38 32 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 23 23 22 23 21 20 17 12 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 78 92 107 123 148 135 77 40 -5 -55 -85 -98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 68 48 58 56 78 71 40 6 -7 3 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 3 3 -1 -10 -5 2 16 14 -6 -8 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 556 532 512 493 483 465 511 681 982 1357 1767 1500 1100 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.6 18.7 21.2 24.2 27.4 30.6 33.9 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.7 154.4 154.0 153.5 153.0 151.6 150.0 148.5 146.7 144.6 142.1 139.2 136.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 6 8 11 14 16 18 19 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 22 24 20 26 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 10. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -16. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -4. -7. -14. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 12. 7. 1. -6. -17. -37. -37. -39. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.0 154.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.7% 20.9% 5.8% 3.5% 1.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 6.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.9% 2.2% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##