* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 90 84 81 79 74 68 61 51 42 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 95 90 84 81 79 74 68 61 51 42 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 94 88 82 79 76 76 73 62 52 45 40 36 34 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 13 20 19 16 16 20 32 48 53 49 44 37 31 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -3 -1 3 4 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 244 237 244 244 249 251 249 249 262 265 282 291 279 273 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.5 23.6 21.6 18.3 15.5 14.5 14.7 13.3 12.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 122 122 122 120 114 101 91 80 74 72 70 68 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 109 105 105 104 105 102 92 84 75 71 68 67 65 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -51.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 61 57 53 47 55 54 53 53 53 55 63 69 71 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 37 35 35 36 37 39 40 40 38 39 37 32 31 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 112 112 105 102 88 87 94 134 138 129 108 67 64 72 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 51 31 22 30 38 30 54 49 73 49 11 -11 35 43 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 49 30 22 18 11 4 -18 -22 -29 14 43 66 55 26 21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 993 977 979 987 916 809 771 667 805 1280 1556 1025 651 458 384 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 31.6 32.7 33.7 34.7 36.7 38.8 40.8 42.7 44.4 46.4 48.9 51.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.1 66.4 65.7 65.0 64.4 62.1 57.6 51.6 44.6 36.9 29.9 23.9 19.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 12 17 23 27 28 28 25 21 17 15 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 3 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 18 CX,CY: 12/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -19. -29. -39. -49. -57. -64. -70. -76. -80. -81. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. -1. -4. -3. -7. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -19. -21. -26. -32. -39. -49. -58. -62. -73. -88. -94. -97. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.4 67.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 12( 31) 8( 37) 7( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 95 90 84 81 79 74 68 61 51 42 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 94 88 85 83 78 72 65 55 46 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 90 87 85 80 74 67 57 48 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 85 80 74 67 57 48 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 74 68 61 51 42 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 95 86 80 77 75 70 64 57 47 38 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 95 90 81 75 71 66 60 53 43 34 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS