* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 96 91 87 83 81 77 70 65 57 48 47 39 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 96 91 87 83 81 77 70 65 57 48 47 39 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 95 86 81 77 75 74 72 65 54 46 42 38 35 34 37 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 22 13 18 22 16 21 26 48 56 47 50 44 37 30 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 0 -4 1 3 6 -3 -1 2 1 0 0 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 294 295 266 235 247 237 267 247 258 257 271 282 288 282 267 258 266 SST (C) 28.4 27.4 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.5 19.1 18.7 15.5 14.1 13.3 12.7 11.8 10.9 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 130 124 123 123 122 120 114 82 81 75 72 69 67 66 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 116 109 106 106 106 107 102 77 77 71 69 66 65 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -51.5 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -54.2 -56.0 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 60 57 50 55 60 54 50 53 55 62 63 64 60 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 29 28 30 30 31 34 34 32 34 35 31 26 27 33 850 MB ENV VOR 105 101 110 125 116 99 59 80 104 111 83 82 20 -14 -84 -78 -113 200 MB DIV 42 32 50 47 18 58 18 42 27 54 39 47 10 3 32 29 21 700-850 TADV 39 37 29 30 36 6 10 -42 -9 -15 36 84 36 32 13 10 1 LAND (KM) 1011 988 977 970 981 875 791 726 612 1017 1513 1115 743 607 672 775 881 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.2 31.4 32.5 33.6 35.7 37.9 40.2 42.5 44.7 47.1 49.6 52.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.2 67.4 66.5 65.9 65.3 63.4 59.7 54.6 48.1 40.3 32.7 25.7 21.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 12 13 15 21 25 29 30 28 23 17 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 8 4 3 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -20. -30. -41. -52. -60. -67. -74. -80. -84. -87. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. -14. -16. -16. -19. -20. -20. -20. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 4. 3. -0. 3. 2. -3. -10. -10. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -28. -35. -40. -48. -57. -58. -66. -80. -93. -96. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 29.0 68.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 12( 36) 9( 42) 8( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 96 91 87 83 81 77 70 65 57 48 47 39 25 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 99 95 91 89 85 78 73 65 56 55 47 33 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 97 93 91 87 80 75 67 58 57 49 35 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 91 89 85 78 73 65 56 55 47 33 DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 84 80 73 68 60 51 50 42 28 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 96 87 81 78 76 72 65 60 52 43 42 34 20 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 96 91 82 76 72 68 61 56 48 39 38 30 16 DIS DIS DIS