* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 45 48 49 49 51 55 60 64 68 71 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 45 48 49 49 51 55 60 64 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 36 39 42 43 43 44 46 50 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 12 10 16 8 9 19 20 22 14 12 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 0 4 4 1 0 4 4 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 259 257 261 237 238 266 289 6 26 20 12 358 350 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 132 133 135 140 158 162 164 165 164 166 167 163 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 113 114 114 118 125 144 149 150 149 146 145 146 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -55.7 -55.6 -55.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 37 36 38 40 40 43 43 42 42 43 43 45 46 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 1 -1 10 37 34 40 36 25 11 0 -16 -39 -43 -50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 0 -3 21 24 10 3 -16 -18 -32 -15 -18 -25 -34 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -5 -5 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2115 2080 2047 2010 1973 1863 1700 1499 1286 1072 911 804 739 697 678 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.3 23.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 23.1 23.3 23.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.2 46.7 47.1 47.5 47.9 48.9 50.4 52.3 54.4 56.7 58.6 60.1 61.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 9 10 10 8 7 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 23 23 19 22 36 38 38 46 51 58 66 59 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 21. 25. 30. 34. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 46.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 9.6% 6.7% 4.9% 3.8% 6.5% 7.8% 10.4% Logistic: 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5% 1.9% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.8% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 2.7% 3.2% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 45 48 49 49 51 55 60 64 68 71 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 32 35 39 43 46 47 47 49 53 58 62 66 69 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 36 40 43 44 44 46 50 55 59 63 66 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 32 35 36 36 38 42 47 51 55 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT