* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 42 41 42 43 44 45 48 53 58 64 67 70 68 67 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 42 41 42 43 44 45 48 53 58 64 67 70 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 39 37 36 36 38 42 48 56 64 69 68 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 23 25 30 24 26 18 18 10 11 3 10 18 21 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 7 9 8 0 4 0 1 1 1 6 3 3 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 287 284 285 285 292 299 304 284 298 277 297 237 249 228 236 238 240 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.2 28.5 28.5 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 132 130 127 129 132 134 137 142 148 153 142 143 131 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 119 118 117 114 111 113 116 117 119 124 129 133 123 123 113 105 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 56 55 50 45 44 45 46 46 51 56 61 55 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 20 21 21 22 23 22 22 22 23 24 27 30 34 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 21 34 52 68 65 58 43 40 37 38 48 63 66 39 2 200 MB DIV 41 49 28 24 12 -4 41 21 7 28 21 34 14 50 81 32 -11 700-850 TADV 5 6 0 1 4 0 7 6 3 2 0 2 13 6 11 8 1 LAND (KM) 1793 1815 1828 1823 1819 1843 1883 1937 1969 1955 1948 1960 2008 2103 2182 2085 1987 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.9 20.8 20.6 20.4 20.4 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.2 24.3 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.3 46.9 46.6 46.1 46.1 46.2 46.6 47.2 47.7 47.9 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 12 11 9 11 14 16 18 23 32 44 34 26 12 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 27. 30. 28. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 48.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.3% 7.4% 5.3% 4.3% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 42 41 42 43 44 45 48 53 58 64 67 70 68 67 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 40 41 42 43 44 47 52 57 63 66 69 67 66 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 36 37 38 39 40 43 48 53 59 62 65 63 62 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 31 32 33 36 41 46 52 55 58 56 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT