* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/17/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 26 25 26 29 31 32 34 36 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 26 25 26 29 31 32 34 36 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 23 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 19 21 24 23 25 27 24 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 3 7 3 6 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 260 256 252 256 252 247 224 237 190 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 131 134 136 138 139 141 149 149 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 120 123 125 126 126 127 134 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 60 58 54 55 51 52 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 22 23 32 28 31 52 53 69 82 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 23 37 18 12 18 12 51 24 13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 3 3 5 2 1 2 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1468 1504 1542 1577 1614 1672 1709 1651 1603 1480 1363 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.2 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.1 45.4 45.6 45.9 46.3 47.2 48.2 49.4 50.6 52.0 53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 11 11 13 15 19 19 24 40 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.0 45.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 5.9% 4.2% 3.0% 5.4% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 2.0% 1.7% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/17/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/17/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 30 29 27 26 26 25 26 29 31 32 34 36 40 42 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 24 23 24 27 29 30 32 34 38 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 22 21 21 20 21 24 26 27 29 31 35 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 17 16 16 15 16 19 21 22 24 26 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT