* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 78 76 70 62 56 50 44 38 35 34 32 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 78 76 70 62 56 50 44 38 35 34 32 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 71 68 61 52 45 40 36 32 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 10 8 10 11 6 9 5 5 1 3 4 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -6 -5 -4 0 0 5 5 6 0 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 96 93 113 120 142 195 217 231 266 272 260 213 198 218 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.0 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.2 23.6 23.4 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 138 131 126 114 97 94 98 100 103 102 102 102 102 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 73 70 68 63 59 51 46 41 38 33 31 28 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 29 28 26 25 23 21 18 15 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 69 59 41 48 25 42 22 37 26 11 20 -1 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 86 69 83 47 10 23 1 -5 0 -10 1 -6 1 -11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 5 2 7 4 7 3 6 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 492 470 461 420 398 427 424 446 512 595 706 821 930 1025 1099 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.5 114.1 114.7 115.2 116.3 117.5 118.6 119.7 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38. -41. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -24. -30. -36. -42. -45. -46. -48. -51. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.4 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.25 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 20.9% 17.8% 12.6% 9.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 6.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.0% 6.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##