* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 42 39 33 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 42 39 33 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 40 36 31 28 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 18 19 23 29 33 35 42 49 56 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 1 -6 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 286 275 271 268 275 288 282 278 273 281 287 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 25.8 25.4 25.3 24.6 24.3 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 122 123 124 125 124 120 115 114 107 104 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 48 48 48 53 56 56 57 58 57 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 23 21 18 15 15 15 16 17 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 3 0 -3 -3 -18 -18 -15 -4 10 29 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -33 -22 14 6 -31 -11 2 17 6 6 9 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 -5 -1 -5 -8 -5 -6 -6 -8 -3 8 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 818 788 748 712 628 576 530 542 603 708 837 953 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.6 28.4 29.4 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.9 151.6 152.4 153.2 154.9 156.5 157.9 159.2 160.3 161.3 162.1 162.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -18. -30. -41. -49. -55. -58. -62. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -26. -33. -41. -50. -61. -65. -69. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.3 150.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##