* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 36 35 35 35 38 38 39 40 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 36 35 35 35 38 38 39 40 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 32 29 27 25 24 23 21 20 18 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 19 21 20 24 23 22 24 30 33 28 21 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 9 7 4 4 1 3 3 1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 254 255 251 255 260 270 262 279 259 261 257 280 288 303 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.3 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 137 137 139 137 135 140 142 155 151 156 156 159 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 137 137 139 137 134 140 141 153 149 153 151 153 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 15 14 15 14 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 47 47 47 46 48 45 48 48 51 54 55 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 16 11 8 3 -17 -20 -29 -25 -36 -26 -22 -9 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -7 1 8 0 24 -2 10 0 -2 -1 28 10 10 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -7 -8 -5 0 -3 -8 -3 -6 -1 -5 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1901 1888 1807 1684 1571 1391 1234 1144 977 778 659 460 221 64 46 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.6 38.1 39.6 41.2 44.3 47.4 50.5 53.5 56.3 59.0 61.7 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 13 11 29 31 20 24 36 56 52 42 47 60 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 35.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.61 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.3% 6.7% 4.9% 4.2% 6.9% 7.3% 6.8% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.2% 2.9% 2.2% 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 35 36 35 35 35 38 38 39 40 40 40 42 43 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 36 35 35 35 38 38 39 40 40 40 42 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 35 34 34 34 37 37 38 39 39 39 41 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 29 29 29 32 32 33 34 34 34 36 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT