* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 47 51 51 51 50 51 53 54 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 47 51 51 51 50 51 53 54 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 30 32 32 32 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 7 7 16 16 19 19 22 13 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 0 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 352 5 358 278 275 269 279 276 297 300 320 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 135 136 128 122 122 122 117 117 119 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 122 121 119 119 110 103 101 101 97 96 99 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -56.2 -56.4 -56.6 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 54 51 47 42 41 41 43 44 43 40 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -15 -30 -41 -62 -75 -89 -108 -90 -53 -34 -32 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 1 -8 2 6 -5 2 -2 4 -38 -30 -21 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 -2 -2 5 3 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2471 2403 2337 2297 2261 2224 2185 2129 2042 1930 1840 1766 1705 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.9 27.8 28.6 29.4 30.7 31.6 32.3 32.7 32.7 32.4 31.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.0 42.3 41.5 40.5 39.5 37.7 36.4 35.4 34.2 32.9 32.0 31.5 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 11 9 6 5 6 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 14 9 10 10 8 3 3 4 1 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 15. 22. 26. 26. 26. 25. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.0 43.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 3.0% 0.8% 5.5% 3.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 29 34 40 47 51 51 51 50 51 53 54 55 56 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 33 39 46 50 50 50 49 50 52 53 54 55 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 29 35 42 46 46 46 45 46 48 49 50 51 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 27 34 38 38 38 37 38 40 41 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT