* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 47 43 37 31 29 29 32 34 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 47 43 37 31 29 29 32 34 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 31 31 30 28 26 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 12 11 6 15 17 27 28 24 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 252 248 228 247 216 194 185 185 186 187 177 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 159 159 154 148 146 141 138 135 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 70 67 66 58 56 51 46 38 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 14 14 16 14 12 10 8 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 14 14 8 -4 -9 -11 -9 10 12 17 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 66 64 67 29 40 37 9 16 19 13 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 0 0 4 5 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1172 1174 1135 1074 1019 902 791 661 535 414 342 295 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 16.8 18.3 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.8 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.7 114.2 114.7 115.1 115.7 115.8 115.6 115.2 114.7 114.4 114.2 114.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 77 62 42 39 24 12 8 6 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 17. 13. 7. 1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 113.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.56 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 23.7% 21.0% 15.5% 0.0% 18.5% 16.7% 16.1% Logistic: 3.7% 21.4% 11.6% 5.7% 3.9% 8.9% 9.3% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 15.1% 4.2% 1.2% 1.3% 7.0% 6.9% 1.7% Consensus: 4.7% 20.1% 12.3% 7.5% 1.7% 11.4% 11.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/01/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##