* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 123 123 123 120 112 104 101 99 98 96 97 98 96 96 95 93 V (KT) LAND 125 123 123 123 120 112 104 101 99 98 96 97 98 96 96 95 93 V (KT) LGEM 125 122 119 116 113 103 93 82 76 72 71 74 75 74 72 70 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 0 1 5 8 4 7 7 10 14 15 15 14 14 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 8 8 12 13 13 9 3 0 3 5 5 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 21 158 186 2 317 332 310 291 286 267 268 275 266 255 263 274 275 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 150 146 139 136 133 131 130 131 129 127 125 125 127 128 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 55 58 58 56 57 60 63 64 63 63 64 63 59 58 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 38 39 38 41 39 39 40 41 42 43 45 44 45 44 41 850 MB ENV VOR 45 48 53 52 57 54 60 67 69 89 87 85 99 89 86 73 65 200 MB DIV 54 50 26 29 24 11 20 26 33 20 18 28 35 27 18 7 7 700-850 TADV -2 5 8 7 10 12 14 16 11 10 9 13 20 19 24 18 14 LAND (KM) 2011 1894 1777 1686 1596 1468 1374 1293 1236 1192 1161 1134 1101 1059 1017 973 957 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.2 137.3 138.3 139.1 139.9 141.0 141.8 142.5 143.0 143.4 143.7 144.0 144.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 32 26 21 12 8 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -24. -35. -44. -51. -57. -61. -62. -64. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 8. 8. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -2. -5. -13. -21. -24. -26. -27. -29. -28. -27. -29. -29. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 15.8 136.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 810.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.01 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 4.8% 3.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 7.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##