* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 107 106 106 102 106 111 118 120 120 124 124 127 129 132 134 V (KT) LAND 110 107 107 106 106 102 106 111 118 120 120 124 124 127 129 132 134 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 105 104 105 108 112 116 118 118 117 118 124 134 146 153 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 14 11 10 12 8 9 4 14 10 13 7 10 5 7 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 4 4 4 5 0 0 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 243 252 260 245 237 244 209 242 220 265 280 285 263 252 214 181 195 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 158 156 151 149 150 151 152 152 150 146 151 159 156 158 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.5 -49.2 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 54 59 56 57 54 50 50 46 45 42 43 43 46 50 49 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 23 22 24 22 26 28 31 33 33 36 37 41 45 50 56 850 MB ENV VOR -10 3 3 7 5 -12 -6 5 24 34 52 64 79 77 117 143 173 200 MB DIV 28 30 23 28 34 11 38 3 32 22 5 0 29 32 53 42 99 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 4 8 7 6 3 4 3 2 0 0 2 4 5 7 LAND (KM) 1891 1920 1952 1976 2004 2076 2129 2181 2242 2323 2424 2546 2678 2526 2818 2655 2514 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.6 24.2 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 178.3 178.7 179.1 179.4 179.7 180.4 180.9 181.4 182.0 182.8 183.8 185.0 186.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 3 4 5 6 0 6 13 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 41 35 28 24 24 27 31 37 35 29 25 30 41 38 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -19. -25. -30. -33. -35. -35. -35. -35. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -3. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 16. 18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. 1. -1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 13. 17. 16. 19. 21. 23. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -4. -8. -4. 1. 8. 10. 10. 14. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.7 178.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 643.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##