* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 124 123 121 119 117 110 108 103 101 99 98 97 97 97 95 96 V (KT) LAND 125 124 123 121 119 117 110 108 103 101 99 98 97 97 97 95 96 V (KT) LGEM 125 124 121 119 118 114 107 97 88 82 77 75 76 78 78 78 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 5 4 3 5 5 10 7 4 6 10 7 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 3 2 8 11 11 7 8 9 1 3 3 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 7 28 14 11 349 35 25 340 312 302 308 293 278 271 287 308 331 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 157 156 152 150 142 137 133 131 130 131 132 132 129 126 126 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 56 53 54 58 61 63 63 63 62 62 62 62 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 34 36 37 40 38 39 38 39 39 40 41 42 43 41 43 850 MB ENV VOR 58 67 73 61 52 56 60 62 63 75 87 87 107 111 117 99 86 200 MB DIV 72 62 52 51 46 5 9 13 18 8 5 8 0 10 8 -18 -32 700-850 TADV -7 0 0 0 2 5 11 11 6 8 5 5 9 11 12 6 8 LAND (KM) 2168 2237 2313 2233 2099 1886 1708 1574 1461 1360 1283 1227 1182 1151 1126 1121 1126 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.6 132.9 134.1 135.3 137.2 138.8 140.0 141.0 141.9 142.6 143.1 143.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 26 25 24 40 24 16 7 5 5 5 6 6 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -22. -32. -41. -48. -54. -58. -59. -60. -62. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -15. -17. -22. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.5 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 844.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.8% 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/30/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##