* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 126 123 118 104 91 81 76 74 73 71 69 68 68 70 73 V (KT) LAND 115 124 126 123 118 104 91 81 76 74 73 71 69 68 68 70 73 V (KT) LGEM 115 123 123 118 113 102 91 82 73 69 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 8 9 9 13 16 21 19 17 18 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -1 0 5 7 6 -2 3 0 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 216 255 258 255 244 227 210 225 222 223 232 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 142 144 145 146 143 143 145 136 136 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 59 58 59 60 60 63 60 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 27 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 38 35 38 45 61 65 56 62 57 65 57 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 27 -7 2 19 25 15 25 32 23 20 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 7 5 7 7 13 8 11 5 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 946 855 765 676 588 421 268 198 179 242 310 398 548 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.6 147.3 148.0 148.7 149.4 150.8 152.3 153.8 155.2 156.5 157.8 159.1 160.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 31 33 23 28 22 18 20 12 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -34. -40. -44. -47. -48. -48. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 9. 13. 12. 11. 6. 2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 11. 8. 3. -11. -24. -34. -39. -41. -42. -44. -46. -47. -47. -45. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.1 146.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 691.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 43.3% 10.6% 11.2% 12.5% 13.5% 5.0% 3.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 47 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##