* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 88 91 99 99 100 95 90 86 82 77 77 77 78 80 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 88 91 99 99 100 95 90 86 82 77 77 77 78 80 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 83 86 89 96 101 101 98 92 84 75 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 9 8 5 4 6 15 18 16 18 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -7 -4 0 0 4 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 53 63 84 90 19 317 228 241 234 223 233 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 28.2 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 146 141 146 143 146 142 139 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 65 62 59 57 57 58 62 61 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 24 28 27 28 28 28 28 27 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 42 43 47 45 48 49 56 75 80 74 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 51 33 31 24 8 1 2 23 53 53 40 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 0 3 11 11 14 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1440 1334 1227 1128 1028 845 682 510 337 178 107 104 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.6 144.5 145.3 146.1 147.6 148.9 150.3 151.7 153.1 154.5 155.7 157.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 23 25 23 23 27 31 33 30 38 26 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 19. 20. 15. 10. 6. 2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 13.7 142.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 11.2% 22.0% 10.7% 8.7% 9.0% 3.5% 1.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.0% 11.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##