* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 45 42 39 37 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 45 42 39 37 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 47 42 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 16 22 32 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 6 5 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 238 173 163 178 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 20.9 17.1 12.5 11.1 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 77 68 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.8 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 44 47 56 67 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 12 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 6 44 118 97 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 37 45 75 89 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 22 9 26 80 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2461 2095 1733 1353 981 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.6 39.4 42.1 45.2 48.2 54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.2 181.5 183.7 186.0 188.3 193.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 33 33 35 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 24 CX,CY: -14/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -25. -30. -35. -39. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. -2. -16. -29. -39. -43. -46. -52. -59. -69. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -17. -23. -37. -53. -65. -75. -86.-103.-117.-133.-141. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.6 179.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##