* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 51 59 65 68 69 71 74 75 78 81 86 90 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 51 59 65 68 69 71 74 75 78 81 86 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 55 58 61 63 65 68 74 81 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 10 9 4 5 11 18 16 15 14 14 3 2 1 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -4 -4 -8 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 24 20 19 25 21 83 262 271 280 298 296 294 290 295 204 277 257 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 146 147 148 151 151 151 150 149 147 146 147 152 148 148 150 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 62 61 60 59 61 62 67 70 73 67 62 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 17 19 19 21 22 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 3 -10 -23 -38 -42 -44 -20 -14 3 22 28 46 39 58 65 200 MB DIV 43 35 26 20 18 20 -1 26 25 42 23 27 10 6 1 14 -3 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 2 -1 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1037 1038 1043 1033 1026 999 990 990 1006 1035 1079 1124 1181 1426 1727 1747 1753 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.4 167.8 168.2 168.4 168.6 168.9 169.1 169.3 169.6 170.0 170.5 171.0 171.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 7 13 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 46 55 62 61 53 47 42 41 42 44 36 29 33 34 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 21. 29. 35. 38. 39. 41. 44. 45. 48. 51. 56. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 167.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.3% 12.4% 5.5% 2.5% 3.6% 7.0% 24.1% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 4.3% 10.7% 8.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##