* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102015 08/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 54 61 66 70 71 72 70 65 61 53 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 46 54 61 66 70 71 72 70 65 61 53 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 49 54 58 60 60 59 55 49 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 5 2 4 8 5 6 4 8 8 14 22 34 36 42 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 3 0 -2 -2 -3 -6 0 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 63 80 84 70 17 23 51 35 348 335 275 273 253 249 237 250 257 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 148 149 147 142 142 139 136 134 129 125 122 123 126 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 68 68 68 66 63 61 60 60 61 63 59 58 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 13 14 14 15 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 30 32 32 24 19 12 13 16 12 2 4 2 22 23 21 200 MB DIV 26 20 16 23 18 20 27 19 33 26 21 30 35 31 49 39 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 4 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 2332 2397 2464 2435 2339 2150 1948 1743 1550 1357 1202 1089 993 899 804 703 631 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.3 132.2 133.2 134.1 135.9 137.7 139.5 141.1 142.7 143.9 144.7 145.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 28 27 22 22 19 11 13 14 14 17 9 1 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 2. -2. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 41. 42. 40. 35. 31. 23. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 TEN 08/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 19.9% 19.2% 14.3% 0.0% 16.0% 15.9% 17.8% Logistic: 3.5% 38.8% 15.4% 9.9% 2.8% 16.2% 16.8% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% Consensus: 4.1% 22.3% 11.7% 8.1% 1.1% 10.9% 11.2% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 TEN 08/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##