* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 55 52 47 43 39 32 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 55 52 47 43 39 32 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 56 53 47 41 34 29 25 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 27 27 30 34 41 41 48 44 42 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 3 3 1 2 0 -5 4 4 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 278 279 274 266 252 251 258 253 259 260 271 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 136 136 135 134 138 137 140 138 137 135 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 58 56 55 55 55 51 49 47 46 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 19 18 19 18 17 14 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 20 30 27 27 27 18 8 -1 -8 -15 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 1 4 27 17 29 14 13 12 0 27 3 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 13 7 10 10 3 12 3 4 3 2 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 784 688 596 508 427 301 223 225 237 344 507 690 906 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.2 24.2 25.2 25.9 26.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.4 148.3 149.1 150.0 150.8 152.6 154.5 156.5 158.5 160.5 162.7 164.9 167.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 13 12 9 9 10 13 12 14 11 10 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -33. -39. -45. -50. -52. -55. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -11. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -28. -36. -39. -44. -48. -50. -52. -56. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.5 147.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##