* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 60 58 54 50 49 43 39 35 32 31 30 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 60 58 54 50 49 43 39 35 32 31 30 29 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 61 57 54 48 44 41 37 33 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 16 18 16 17 24 30 35 37 37 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 6 3 -1 2 4 2 5 2 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 282 287 274 273 279 256 258 253 258 248 259 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.2 26.8 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.7 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 138 140 136 131 136 135 137 139 142 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 67 66 62 61 59 55 55 52 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 18 18 18 16 16 17 13 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 15 14 14 24 20 36 39 28 20 9 -7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 12 0 12 6 19 41 37 26 9 1 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 8 5 3 2 4 7 6 0 -3 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1108 1012 916 823 730 525 331 138 69 52 64 267 518 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.7 22.8 23.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.0 145.8 146.6 147.4 148.2 150.0 151.7 153.5 155.3 157.2 159.3 161.7 164.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 11 16 17 12 22 13 10 19 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -10. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -20. -21. -27. -31. -35. -38. -39. -40. -41. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.0 145.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.34 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 13.1% 11.6% 7.8% 6.8% 6.8% 6.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.0% 4.0% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##