* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 30 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 30 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 25 23 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 6 8 12 21 16 15 17 15 18 18 19 13 4 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -6 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 1 2 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 253 252 227 182 185 207 235 231 232 216 218 215 209 208 203 122 99 SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.2 26.4 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 125 124 127 118 116 115 110 108 109 110 111 112 112 113 114 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 60 58 53 50 46 43 41 38 35 31 27 26 27 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 47 39 32 34 43 37 52 55 63 44 59 62 59 47 37 15 2 200 MB DIV 36 14 -9 -8 -14 -23 -9 15 5 2 -9 -14 -20 -9 -9 -28 -28 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 3 6 6 2 0 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1842 1876 1911 1957 2005 2098 2148 2019 1923 1861 1809 1780 1773 1777 1780 1782 1785 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.7 20.0 20.0 19.8 19.4 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.7 129.4 130.1 130.8 131.6 133.0 134.3 135.5 136.4 137.0 137.5 137.8 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. -29. -28. -26. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 128.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.63 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.07 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 11.9% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.5% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##