* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CARLOS EP032015 06/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 66 67 67 68 67 66 64 63 61 60 61 61 62 64 66 V (KT) LAND 65 65 66 67 67 68 67 66 64 63 61 60 61 61 62 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 67 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 9 7 5 6 6 4 11 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -5 1 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 11 17 27 1 352 357 325 188 242 212 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 29.0 29.4 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 146 142 142 142 145 152 156 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 61 58 58 55 58 59 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 1 0 -16 -21 -10 -20 17 20 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 0 -3 -25 -18 -2 -16 3 -9 29 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 122 106 106 108 122 79 50 33 80 90 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.2 103.7 104.1 104.6 105.3 105.7 106.0 106.3 106.6 107.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 26 19 14 10 8 8 10 17 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.9 102.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 22.2% 21.8% 16.9% 12.9% 15.9% 12.6% 11.5% Logistic: 2.7% 9.4% 4.8% 2.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 11.0% 8.9% 6.5% 5.4% 5.7% 4.3% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032015 CARLOS 06/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##