* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 86 86 81 73 58 40 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 86 86 81 73 58 40 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 82 77 63 48 35 28 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 9 8 8 12 16 15 15 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 7 9 11 5 5 8 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 120 109 131 110 120 139 172 191 202 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 25.4 24.5 22.8 22.8 23.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 145 141 137 117 108 89 89 92 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 2 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 64 63 61 61 60 55 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 36 33 32 27 21 17 11 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 77 66 68 59 61 59 43 21 4 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 54 36 28 4 -38 -26 -19 27 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 1 0 1 -2 -2 -4 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 496 496 477 445 252 119 39 15 -63 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.2 18.1 18.9 20.7 22.5 24.2 25.8 27.2 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.1 109.5 109.9 110.6 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 27 12 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -37. -39. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -6. -15. -24. -32. -40. -37. -34. -31. -28. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -4. -12. -27. -45. -61. -76. -89. -90. -90. -89. -88. -89. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.8 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.57 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 20.2% 19.6% 15.2% 11.6% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.7% 25.5% 9.2% 5.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 4.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.4% 16.7% 10.0% 7.0% 4.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##