* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 26 27 23 21 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 -1 -3 0 1 2 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 243 235 233 236 208 199 184 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.8 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.9 23.3 24.1 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 86 85 85 85 88 93 101 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 41 38 36 33 33 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 17 15 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 15 11 24 20 8 9 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -14 -7 -18 -45 -41 -9 -13 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -1 0 -5 -5 -10 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1297 1293 1290 1294 1299 1310 1319 1285 1253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.2 18.7 18.2 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.6 124.5 124.3 124.2 124.1 123.8 123.3 122.5 121.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -25. -26. -26. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -21. -32. -44. -56. -66. -71. -76. -80. -83. -86. -88. -90. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.1 124.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##