* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLANCA EP022015 06/03/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 130 137 142 141 137 128 114 101 83 64 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 120 130 137 142 141 137 128 114 101 83 64 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 129 134 136 136 129 115 98 79 62 47 34 24 24 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 4 6 9 7 14 15 24 20 21 15 15 18 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 4 9 7 12 6 9 3 1 9 7 12 8 12 9 SHEAR DIR 183 144 101 94 98 126 129 126 113 109 124 160 191 164 183 194 211 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.6 27.4 27.3 25.9 24.9 23.1 22.8 21.9 21.2 20.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 163 164 160 150 137 136 121 111 92 88 78 70 66 63 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 81 79 78 76 73 70 69 66 64 59 56 56 52 47 43 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 38 38 41 41 39 38 33 28 21 15 9 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 45 57 59 64 80 93 91 80 65 61 51 71 41 30 5 11 10 200 MB DIV 134 113 102 83 104 87 63 42 -6 -6 -33 -7 18 9 9 13 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 665 653 641 607 577 521 448 414 409 256 108 52 1 10 40 19 -16 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.7 16.2 17.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 104.8 104.9 105.2 105.5 106.5 107.6 108.6 109.4 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 2 4 5 6 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 95 94 92 88 83 55 25 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -15. -25. -33. -41. -48. -54. -58. -63. -69. -76. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 2. -5. -14. -19. -24. -24. -25. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 17. 22. 21. 17. 8. -6. -19. -37. -56. -77. -92.-106.-116.-125.-130. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.3 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 11.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.87 4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 60.2% 49.0% 39.0% 36.9% 35.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 51.0% 43.6% 24.8% 15.3% 5.7% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 95.1% 59.9% 66.4% 71.4% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 68.8% 50.9% 43.4% 41.2% 23.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022015 BLANCA 06/03/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##