* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/03/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 46 39 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 53 46 39 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 53 47 42 37 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 18 21 22 28 27 19 28 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 8 13 1 -2 0 7 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 260 265 263 250 250 230 223 193 197 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.7 23.0 23.4 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 93 91 90 89 87 86 89 94 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 54 52 50 44 40 33 30 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 21 21 21 18 18 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 37 22 28 45 26 34 21 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -2 0 10 -2 -15 -10 -45 -8 2 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 11 3 2 1 3 -2 -2 -6 -9 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1391 1382 1374 1362 1351 1328 1290 1247 1232 1207 1172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.4 19.0 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.0 125.2 125.2 125.2 124.9 124.3 123.6 122.9 122.2 121.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. -25. -29. -33. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -27. -39. -48. -58. -69. -77. -82. -85. -88. -92. -94. -99.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.0 124.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/03/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##