* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 06/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 70 59 50 42 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 70 59 50 42 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 69 60 51 44 34 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 7 10 11 18 28 26 22 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 5 3 8 7 0 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 252 245 234 244 243 248 237 238 196 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.9 23.2 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 102 96 93 92 88 86 86 88 91 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -50.8 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 63 61 54 51 42 34 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 24 23 22 20 19 17 14 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 65 46 30 30 24 29 33 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -36 -22 -6 -6 0 -19 -13 -26 -30 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 13 10 11 8 2 2 -5 -1 -12 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1341 1362 1377 1366 1359 1312 1259 1199 1149 1095 1047 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.3 123.9 124.3 124.7 124.7 124.2 123.5 122.8 122.0 121.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -23. -29. -34. -38. -42. -46. -49. -53. -56. -60. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -29. -28. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -30. -38. -50. -62. -73. -84. -94.-101.-103.-105.-106.-107.-109.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 06/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##