* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 43 36 34 31 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 52 43 36 34 31 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 48 42 35 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 21 32 46 58 75 67 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 11 3 0 -4 -17 -13 -6 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 311 306 293 285 268 252 243 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.9 17.3 15.3 14.4 13.2 12.9 12.9 12.7 11.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 68 69 68 67 65 62 62 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -49.9 -48.7 -47.8 -47.5 -46.4 -46.3 -46.9 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.2 2.3 2.4 3.0 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 57 60 50 44 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 21 25 29 30 23 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 134 205 206 197 231 181 127 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 62 74 62 56 28 18 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 59 79 160 131 53 6 -5 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1865 1700 1586 1350 995 748 431 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 39.2 41.4 43.5 45.5 48.1 49.6 51.3 52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.1 155.5 151.8 148.7 145.6 142.5 139.8 135.9 131.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 33 36 33 30 23 14 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 30 CX,CY: 23/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -13. -17. -23. -26. -29. -33. -35. -39. -44. -49. -54. -60. -63. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -5. -19. -43. -69. -89. -97.-105.-116.-130.-149.-161. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 8. 18. 29. 34. 34. 31. 25. 15. 11. 5. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 6. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -13. -11. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -3. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -23. -26. -29. -31. -42. -74. -98.-119.-135.-153.-178.-199.-222.-229. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.0 159.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##