* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 37 40 46 52 53 48 38 29 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 37 40 46 52 53 48 38 29 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 33 33 34 36 36 32 25 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 22 18 12 7 10 17 29 42 36 30 48 64 53 54 47 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 3 -2 0 3 -3 2 1 -3 -6 -1 0 5 2 SHEAR DIR 235 247 248 229 210 266 296 291 290 313 310 288 262 248 244 244 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.3 24.4 23.0 21.2 19.0 16.5 15.0 15.0 15.8 16.5 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 143 141 135 127 108 94 76 65 66 66 64 62 64 63 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -53.3 -52.1 -50.5 -49.4 -49.0 -49.4 -48.2 -48.5 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.6 1.4 2.1 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 9 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 42 46 47 45 52 60 66 66 66 61 62 52 46 39 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 18 18 19 20 20 20 26 31 31 27 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -32 -28 -32 -43 -37 -84 -88 -72 -4 154 190 194 194 229 182 141 200 MB DIV 18 4 5 -7 -1 -4 29 0 52 60 79 78 42 21 5 25 19 700-850 TADV 9 -1 1 7 7 4 14 32 50 57 90 145 48 -107 -108 -58 -60 LAND (KM) 605 662 727 787 857 970 1056 1158 1283 1449 1754 1730 1550 972 896 507 135 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.9 24.8 27.0 29.1 31.2 33.2 35.2 37.9 41.0 44.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.1 166.7 167.2 167.6 168.0 168.0 167.1 165.6 163.6 161.0 157.2 152.3 147.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 14 18 22 24 26 18 14 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 38 30 23 19 20 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 15. 13. 10. 5. 1. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -9. -19. -27. -34. -44. -55. -67. -83. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 13. 18. 16. 11. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 18. 13. 3. -6. -6. -16. -36. -60. -85.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.6 166.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.12 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 295.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/22/14 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING