* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 55 55 56 61 66 69 70 71 68 65 59 53 40 29 V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 55 55 56 61 66 69 70 71 68 65 59 53 40 29 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 55 54 52 51 52 55 59 62 63 62 58 53 49 41 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 37 37 31 26 23 17 14 15 15 20 24 21 15 16 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 0 0 -1 0 6 4 10 11 14 SHEAR DIR 267 259 253 240 230 247 229 211 200 241 260 284 258 242 233 254 250 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.2 25.7 25.0 24.8 25.2 23.7 20.9 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 146 145 144 142 140 140 135 119 112 106 113 102 75 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -52.5 -52.4 -51.2 -50.4 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 6 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 49 49 50 47 51 55 57 60 66 69 66 60 54 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 16 17 16 18 19 21 23 25 26 27 27 28 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -23 -26 -20 -12 -28 -35 -19 -7 -16 -37 -39 -21 -5 66 77 83 200 MB DIV 43 32 13 14 49 17 11 7 19 -7 34 7 57 41 20 0 38 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -2 1 3 4 1 2 2 2 8 20 30 22 24 8 0 LAND (KM) 141 181 246 323 408 570 696 804 917 1023 1118 1216 1327 1224 1383 1558 1803 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.7 23.8 25.1 26.4 27.8 29.1 30.5 31.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.9 161.7 162.5 163.4 164.2 165.7 166.7 167.3 167.8 168.0 168.0 167.8 167.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 5 18 23 25 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 36 29 26 28 21 21 22 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 14. 15. 13. 12. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. 1. 6. 9. 10. 11. 8. 5. -1. -7. -20. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.7 160.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##