* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 67 65 63 64 67 70 72 75 78 77 74 68 59 48 V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 67 65 63 64 67 70 72 75 78 77 74 68 59 48 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 66 64 59 57 58 62 67 72 75 73 70 66 58 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 31 33 33 29 21 15 13 11 11 8 20 15 13 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -4 -4 1 -1 1 4 1 3 7 15 SHEAR DIR 273 274 269 259 246 246 227 253 233 174 220 233 239 235 236 226 249 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.7 25.8 25.1 25.6 24.9 22.8 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 147 146 144 144 142 142 143 140 121 112 118 112 92 75 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -50.7 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 50 50 51 51 56 60 62 64 67 63 60 50 42 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 16 17 20 22 24 26 27 28 28 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -40 -35 -28 -29 -24 -27 -29 -20 -8 -10 -11 1 -7 33 79 126 200 MB DIV 2 -3 28 51 38 53 13 15 3 32 20 38 34 62 35 13 7 700-850 TADV 8 5 -1 -9 -5 3 5 4 4 2 4 17 23 21 18 1 25 LAND (KM) 142 104 104 166 246 399 553 696 824 947 1060 1184 1338 1159 1240 1331 1499 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.5 22.1 22.9 23.8 24.7 25.8 27.1 28.8 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 159.6 160.3 160.9 161.8 162.6 164.1 165.5 166.7 167.7 168.5 169.0 169.2 169.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 6 7 10 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 34 40 34 25 27 21 23 24 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -3. 0. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. -2. -11. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.6 159.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##