* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA CP022014 10/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 67 65 62 62 64 68 72 76 81 83 83 82 78 74 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 67 65 62 62 64 68 72 76 81 83 83 82 78 74 V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 67 65 60 56 55 57 60 68 77 85 90 89 85 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 22 20 24 26 30 19 16 11 10 4 14 12 10 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 6 3 0 0 3 0 -2 -1 0 0 5 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 264 281 278 259 268 268 262 237 240 207 230 218 222 208 213 209 287 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.6 26.7 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 146 146 146 147 147 148 145 144 145 139 129 119 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 62 59 56 55 54 59 62 62 65 65 66 63 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 16 17 19 20 23 26 28 31 33 34 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -18 -16 -31 -20 -13 -13 -2 2 8 7 17 26 26 33 41 200 MB DIV 58 56 79 28 5 33 37 64 35 26 0 47 12 70 66 55 2 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 2 4 3 1 5 9 1 3 5 11 12 13 3 4 LAND (KM) 214 274 259 246 201 233 342 463 584 698 784 850 926 1036 1247 1296 1300 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.4 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.7 158.5 159.2 159.9 160.5 162.0 163.4 164.7 165.9 166.9 167.5 167.8 168.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 49 32 28 38 34 31 33 27 19 20 21 12 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -8. -6. -2. 2. 6. 11. 13. 13. 12. 8. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.2 157.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022014 ANA 10/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##