* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 61 70 78 91 98 95 89 85 81 69 55 40 42 44 41 V (KT) LAND 45 52 61 70 78 91 98 95 89 85 81 69 55 40 42 44 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 63 69 82 89 86 80 75 69 59 44 35 37 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 6 6 7 5 3 6 8 6 12 17 25 31 35 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -5 -2 -3 0 -2 -2 0 6 6 12 10 6 6 0 SHEAR DIR 74 63 63 62 63 39 55 42 157 284 237 257 232 230 223 228 233 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 149 150 150 143 138 132 126 122 119 115 114 118 121 127 130 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 75 76 74 74 69 61 51 45 42 34 24 16 13 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 18 20 23 27 27 27 28 29 24 16 6 13 23 28 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 8 17 24 18 20 21 20 16 10 -6 -9 -26 -26 -2 0 200 MB DIV 72 49 36 23 23 19 24 25 10 13 27 25 4 -20 -10 -9 -31 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 0 1 0 1 -1 -1 -8 -7 -17 -14 -9 LAND (KM) 352 416 484 472 461 464 487 438 398 379 362 344 302 257 228 183 154 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.0 109.8 110.7 111.5 113.0 114.1 114.8 115.3 115.6 115.7 115.7 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 16 20 24 12 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 15. 5. -7. 1. 9. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 25. 33. 46. 53. 50. 44. 40. 36. 24. 10. -5. -3. -1. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.1 108.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.70 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -5.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 44.0% 29.2% 20.3% 14.7% 27.3% 27.9% 15.6% Logistic: 18.9% 51.5% 27.2% 21.1% 18.9% 31.3% 17.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 11.6% 3.8% 1.8% 3.4% 8.0% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 11.5% 35.7% 20.0% 14.4% 12.3% 22.2% 15.6% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##