* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 59 60 58 54 49 45 38 33 28 25 23 22 22 22 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 59 60 58 54 49 45 38 33 28 25 23 22 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 57 57 55 50 45 41 36 33 29 27 25 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 8 7 11 13 16 18 21 18 15 13 10 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 3 -2 2 -1 1 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 341 160 196 206 188 205 203 223 242 252 234 237 213 194 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 131 127 124 119 118 117 118 118 117 119 118 120 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 54 51 48 45 39 35 31 30 28 26 26 28 28 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 14 14 12 10 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 19 24 23 16 30 30 29 24 19 9 5 -10 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 11 23 49 22 4 2 -15 -12 -19 -23 -31 -19 -12 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 726 699 675 649 625 591 586 589 603 633 677 714 765 809 869 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.7 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.7 21.4 21.1 20.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.4 116.6 116.7 116.9 117.0 117.1 117.2 117.3 117.5 117.8 118.0 118.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. -33. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.6% 3.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 10.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##