* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 27 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 27 26 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 31 30 26 24 19 21 20 19 17 21 21 15 12 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 3 -2 2 -4 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 93 103 104 112 113 113 128 125 133 130 106 93 92 104 109 114 132 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 139 140 139 135 130 129 129 130 132 133 135 137 137 137 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 56 55 50 51 48 47 45 47 47 51 49 51 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 15 15 13 11 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 33 34 25 25 20 16 11 3 8 11 22 31 29 24 17 200 MB DIV 7 1 21 11 0 16 -7 7 9 8 -14 -6 -22 -14 -20 -7 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 3 2 2 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 279 218 167 143 151 238 279 327 392 446 502 574 634 700 769 821 884 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.5 22.2 21.8 21.3 20.7 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.5 111.1 112.4 113.4 114.3 114.9 115.2 115.4 115.7 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 8 10 9 7 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -17. -17. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -14. -17. -21. -28. -34. -39. -42. -43. -42. -38. -33. -28. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 108.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##