* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 47 44 41 34 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 47 44 41 34 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 46 44 38 31 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 28 29 27 20 25 22 22 16 18 12 13 12 9 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 -2 -3 1 4 5 -1 3 0 -1 1 1 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 78 86 92 104 103 101 111 127 132 125 131 108 99 79 93 77 106 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 143 140 140 139 131 126 125 122 121 120 120 119 119 119 119 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 55 54 52 46 46 42 42 37 38 38 40 39 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 13 11 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 36 26 34 29 25 26 18 21 9 22 33 36 36 32 33 200 MB DIV 15 16 7 -2 25 25 -16 -11 -3 1 0 -14 -1 -11 -16 -26 -19 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 2 4 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 239 288 286 232 190 197 267 309 368 424 489 545 568 568 568 568 568 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.6 22.5 22.3 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.5 109.0 109.6 110.2 111.5 112.8 114.0 115.0 115.7 116.4 116.9 117.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 14 10 11 11 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -18. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -21. -29. -37. -43. -48. -49. -49. -48. -46. -44. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.8 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##