* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 50 49 46 43 36 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 50 49 46 43 36 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 48 46 42 37 31 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 27 24 26 23 13 24 19 15 13 15 13 9 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 -2 -2 1 7 2 4 5 0 -2 1 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 68 71 83 92 102 112 108 117 130 120 109 115 112 113 102 109 121 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 142 141 140 136 129 125 123 121 118 117 117 117 117 117 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 59 54 52 48 44 42 42 40 41 42 44 45 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 19 18 18 18 15 12 10 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 44 59 50 35 28 43 27 30 27 22 13 12 25 35 46 43 35 200 MB DIV 34 24 21 10 -4 11 23 -19 -10 0 -14 -11 -7 7 -22 -8 -2 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -2 -2 -2 1 4 6 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 251 287 331 271 223 227 306 342 398 470 530 557 566 566 566 566 566 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.4 108.9 109.6 110.2 111.5 112.8 114.1 115.2 116.1 116.8 117.1 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 16 12 11 13 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -18. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -19. -27. -34. -39. -41. -42. -41. -40. -39. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.3 107.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##