* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172014 09/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 62 60 55 54 50 47 39 34 27 20 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 62 60 55 54 50 47 39 34 27 20 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 60 54 49 44 38 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 19 21 28 23 22 19 25 19 25 24 23 23 22 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 7 5 0 3 4 4 4 3 2 -1 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 49 54 66 62 71 84 99 105 112 113 118 121 120 119 109 112 98 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.6 26.8 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 147 147 148 143 138 138 130 123 120 117 117 116 116 116 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 66 63 58 55 51 50 48 46 46 47 48 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 21 21 18 20 19 18 14 13 10 7 5 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 23 33 37 42 50 57 34 44 32 38 23 17 1 2 10 12 23 200 MB DIV 87 81 70 51 42 10 11 0 12 6 -5 18 12 0 2 -7 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -2 0 -3 -2 2 4 5 5 0 1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 211 200 212 237 263 337 245 226 256 303 321 391 430 430 438 438 438 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.5 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.2 106.7 107.3 107.8 108.9 110.0 111.2 112.2 113.2 114.2 115.2 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 17 17 19 22 14 9 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -3. -5. -10. -11. -15. -18. -26. -31. -38. -45. -48. -50. -51. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.5 105.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.02 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.2% 12.5% 12.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.3% 4.4% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172014 POLO 09/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##